Mapping the commodity fingerprint of global forest loss

Mapping the commodity fingerprint of global forest loss

Every year, millions of hectares of tropical forest are lost — but not all of this deforestation is equal. A key question for climate policy and sustainable supply chains is: which specific agricultural commodities are responsible, and in which countries? This paper published in Nature Food provides the most comprehensive global picture to date of commodity-driven deforestation and its associated carbon emissions, covering the period 2001–2023.

Using the DeDuCE model — which integrates satellite-based forest loss data with spatial overlays of commodity production — we quantify how much deforestation can be attributed to beef, soy, oil palm, cocoa, and other agricultural commodities across tropical and subtropical regions. The results reveal stark geographic and commodity-specific patterns: beef production in Brazil and Bolivia accounts for the largest share of agricultural deforestation, while oil palm expansion drives the majority of forest loss in Indonesia and Malaysia. Soy, particularly in Brazil's Cerrado and Amazon, is another major driver with strong links to global feed and food markets.

Crucially, this study links deforestation directly to associated carbon emissions — providing a commodity-resolved carbon budget for tropical land-use change. This granular accounting is vital for initiatives like the EU Deforestation-Free Products Regulation (EUDR), enabling regulators and businesses to identify high-risk supply chains with precision. The results also reveal that a relatively small number of commodity-country pairs account for a disproportionately large share of global emissions from forest loss.

The findings underscore that deforestation is not a uniform crisis but a highly concentrated one — geographically and sectorally. Effective policy must target the specific commodities, regions, and trade flows that carry the heaviest deforestation burden. Supply chain transparency, robust traceability systems, and consumer-country regulation are all essential pieces of the puzzle.